Confidential
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Isard Labs Isard Labs

Algorithmic trading research · Investor briefing

An Alpha Factory for systematic markets.

Sure-footed where others slip.

Search like a lab.·Reject like a fund.

18+ yrs on the desk·5 yrs of focused research·our own capital deployed

Confidential — prepared for prospective investors · Not an offer to sell securities

The hard problem

Choosing a trading strategy that keeps working is brutally hard — for everyone.

Markets adapt

Edges decay

An edge that works gets crowded and arbitraged away. Yesterday’s signal becomes today’s noise — what worked stops working.

Skill hides in luck

You can’t eyeball it

A winning streak can be pure chance. Over any short run, a real edge and a lucky one look identical.

Noise drowns signal

Mostly randomness

Almost all price movement is random. Real, durable edge is rare and faint — easy to imagine, hard to find.

Track records lie

Hindsight, not proof

A great backtest or past run is usually survivorship and hindsight — it says what happened, not what will.

Gut feel or a model, the core problem is the same: telling a real, durable edge from luck. Intuition can’t — and a single backtest won’t.

The problem

Most trading strategies are statistical illusions — telling real edge from luck is brutally hard.

35
of 10,000+ published ML stock-market papers even backtest a strategy1
4
of those 35 hold up when independently reproduced1

The field publishes by the thousands and validates almost nothing — results overfit to history, leaking future data, or ignoring real costs. A fund’s hard problem isn’t a good-looking backtest — it’s proving the edge is real, durable, and not luck. That proof is what we manufacture.

1 — Olorunnimbe & Viktor, Deep learning in the stock market: a systematic survey (Artificial Intelligence Review, 2023): of 10,000+ publications identified, only 35 met the backtesting due-diligence criterion; of those, 4 were reproducible. Broader academic-replication evidence (the factor-zoo / anomaly replication crisis) in the appendix.

What a real edge must clear

Five tests. Miss one, and it’s a curve fit — not an edge.

01

Significant

Distinguishable from luck — survives multiple-testing correction, not one lucky draw.

02

Net of costs

Still profitable after real slippage, fees and market impact — not just on paper.

03

Out-of-sample

Works on data it never saw in training. The backtest is evidence, not proof.

04

Regime-stable

Holds across market eras — bull, crash, chop — not one lucky window.

05

Reproducible

Not overfit, not cherry-picked — the same rules, re-derived, still hold.

Almost nothing clears all five. That’s the whole problem — and why a raw backtest lies.

Why this needs a lab

You can’t eyeball a trillion candidates — and a single backtest lies.

No human can hand-test that space against five hard tests. Clearing the bar at scale takes a lab: an apparatus that generates candidates, tests each one, and rejects almost everything — so only what survives reaches capital.

Generate at scale
Test against the five
Reject almost everything
Keep the survivors

Search like a lab.·Reject like a fund.

The product

We manufacture trading strategies — and prove them like science.

Search like a lab.·Reject like a fund.

A Quant-as-a-Service research lab: we turn compute into validated, tradable edge — licensed to funds, not traded against them. Not demos, not black boxes.

What survives

We search wide and reject hard. Real capital is the final reviewer.

01 02 03 04 05 trillions of combinations what survives real capital

The space of possible strategies runs to the trillions. Five disciplines kill all but a few. What survives has earned the right to manage money.

The defensible advantage

The discipline to reject almost everything.

Anyone can generate strategies. Our moat is the validation gate that kills the ones that were only luck — built on 18+ years of method that is hard to copy and documented as IP.

The team

The method is the founder’s life’s work.

18+ yrs
on the trading desk and in academic research
5 yrs
distilling that into a validated, repeatable system

Who built this

The rare profile where deep research and front-line trading live in one person.

  • A decade in global banking (2007–2018) — market-risk analyst → senior quantitative developer → Quantitative Analytics Manager, including 7 years at a top-five global investment bank (HSBC), owning the firm-wide modelling platform quant teams used to build and ship models.
  • Since 2018 — applied AI beyond finance — machine learning and quantitative methods across industry (Devoteam, OVHcloud, Jolibrain · France), broadening the toolkit that now powers the lab.
  • Academic depth — dual bachelor’s (Maths; Computer Science), dual master’s (Big Data; AI — Dissertation of the Year), PhD in progress in Applied Mathematics & Quantitative Finance; peer-reviewed publications in maths & ML journals.
  • At the state of the art — builds on the newest quantitative methods and modern compute, not legacy tooling — the same frontier discipline that AI labs run.
  • Our own capital, real consequences — production systematic strategies run on the lab’s own capital, reconciled bar by bar. 18 years across Brazil, the UK and France · Mensa · fluent EN/ES/PT/FR.

Traction & validation

Five years of research. Our own capital, live. Every result validated.

5 yrs
of focused, full-time research
Live
our own capital already deployed
100+
research approaches explored & filtered

The journey so far

Five years in — the factory is already running.

2021 · spun off from an award-winning AI dissertation
2021–25 · built the five-discipline validation engine
our own capital deployed, live
2026 · ready to scale

What exists today

5
disciplines in the validation gate — built & running
100k+
lines of version-controlled research code
1,100+
research notebooks — experiments run & recorded
Live
our own capital, live on top-20 crypto

This isn’t a pitch for something to be built. The engine runs at one-machine scale today — the raise turns it into a fleet.

Research-volume figures are repository counts (excl. dependencies) — development effort, not performance.

Why it scales

Add compute, search more, find more edges.

More compute
More of the space searched
More validated edges

Growth scales with hardware, not headcount — this raise turns one machine into a fleet.

The market

A US$5T+ hedge-fund industry, inside markets worth hundreds of trillions.

US$5.2T
global hedge-fund industry — our licensing market1
US$127T
global equity markets2
US$145T
global bond markets3
1 — HFR, global hedge-fund industry AUM US$5.2T (1Q 2026). 2 — SIFMA 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book, global equity market cap US$126.7T (year-end 2024). 3 — SIFMA 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book, global bond markets US$145.1T (year-end 2024).

The customer

Funds pay us for an edge they can’t build in-house.

New and existing funds that want a validated edge they can’t build in-house — building that capability internally takes years and a team few can assemble.

The revenue model

One edge. Two ways to license it.

You run it
·
We sell it

Quant-as-a-Service: we license the edge and share in the result — we never manage the money or take market risk ourselves.

The margin

We sell the same IP many times — costs barely move.

No market risk. Fees on capital and IP, not bets. Costs are largely fixed, so each new client multiplies revenue on research we’ve already built.

The competition

A real B2B market exists — everyone sells one layer. We ship the whole strategy.

What they sellRepresentative players
Predictive signalsSparkTrade · Sanostro · I Know First
Execution algorithmsPragma · Quantitative Brokers · Quod
Rules-based indicesResearch Affiliates · Scientific Beta · TOBAM
Tools & infrastructureCloudQuant · Premialab · StrategyQuant

Isard ships the validated whole — a strategy that survived all five disciplines (data → alpha → adversarial backtest → execution → risk), not a single signal, algo, or tool.

The Quant-as-a-Service / Strategy-as-a-Service landscape; representative players. Full map & proof points in the appendix.

The raise

US$50M — compute to find edges, a team to validate them.

US$50M
raise, deployed over ~24 months
~US$20M/yr
compute — the discovery engine1
~US$5M/yr
team, data, compliance & legal2
1 — Public cloud rates (2025); ~US$20M/yr funds a large generation + validation fleet. 2 — Lean senior quant team, market data, compliance / legal / audit.

The investor return

You own equity in an applied-AI lab — not a fund.

A high-margin IP company whose value compounds as the research, the recurring revenue, and the client capital all grow — priced like a research lab, not a 2-and-20 manager.

The risks

Every risk we name already has a mitigation built in.

Edges decay → continuous search refills the pipeline. Luck masquerades as skill → the validation gate exists to catch exactly that. Key-person risk → the method is documented IP, not tribal knowledge.

Regulation → treated as a design input from day one — qualified-client gating, pre-trade risk controls and a compliance budget in the raise — with the specifics finalized by specialist counsel per jurisdiction.

The exit

Three ways the money comes back.

Strategic acquisition
·
Cash distributions
·
Later round / secondary

Elite AI-researcher talent commands ~US$1–2M+/yr, and AI-team acqui-hires run into the hundreds of millions; a cash-generative lab can also distribute or support a later round.1

1 — Reported AI acqui-hire / researcher-comp benchmarks (2024–25). Illustrative; no exit is guaranteed. Pending legal review.

The close

Five disciplines. One standard.
Real capital is the final reviewer.

We’re raising US$50M to turn an award-winning, academically validated architecture into an institutional-scale Alpha Factory. If that’s a thesis you invest behind — let’s talk.

Sure-footed where others slip.

Luiz de Jesus · luiz.dejesus@isardlabs.com · linkedin.com/company/isard-labs

Appendix

Appendix — the proof behind the story.

Everything behind the one-line answers — the full thesis and science, the validation gate, the trajectory and economics, the founder’s record, the market and the category, compliance, and the story behind the name. Happy to go as deep as you want on any of it.

The thesis

A frontier AI lab’s method, run with a quant fund’s discipline.

The engine

Search like a lab

The same compute-scaled, empirical method that lets AI labs predict the next token — pointed at the next price move. Hypotheses in, evidence out, at scale.

The discipline

Reject like a fund

The heritage that made systematic funds compound: reject almost everything. Only signal that is provably non-random earns capital.

The two meet at one gate. Most firms stop at quant — math on price; we go a step further — the scientific method, applied to markets. We package the result as Quant-as-a-Service — validated strategies, licensed to institutions.

Why this is hard

Two different traps: trading on instinct — and trusting a backtest.

① The people — retail, discretionary day traders, trading on feel

97%
of committed day traders lose money over time — and they don’t improve with practice1
74–89%
of retail trading accounts lose money, per market regulators2

② The method — even a flawless backtest can be a lie

Killer 01

Overfitting

The strategy memorised the past. It cannot predict the future.

Killer 02

Look-ahead bias

Tomorrow’s information leaked into yesterday’s decision. Invisible. Fatal.

Killer 03

Selection bias

Test a hundred, report the best. That’s not an edge — it’s a lottery winner.

Test enough combinations and you are guaranteed to find a winner in pure noise.3 The only defence: search millions — then try to kill each one.

1 — Chague, De-Losso & Giovannetti, Day Trading for a Living? (2020). 2 — ESMA review of retail CFD accounts (2018). 3 — Bailey, Borwein, López de Prado & Zhu, The Probability of Backtest Overfitting (Journal of Computational Finance, 2017).

Why this is hard · the literature

The published edge usually isn’t real.

Replication crisis

Most anomalies vanish

65% of 452 documented anomalies fail to replicate (82% under a proper multiple-testing hurdle); ~half of published factors are likely false; predictor returns fall 58% after publication.1

Backtest overfitting

Noise dressed as skill

Try enough configurations and a high Sharpe is almost guaranteed from pure noise. “A large proportion of backtests published in academic journals may be misleading.”2

ML rot

Leakage & toy data

Of 10,000+ ML stock-market papers, only 35 properly backtest — and just 4 reproduce. Data leakage spans 17 fields & 294 papers. Toy datasets, look-ahead, no real transaction costs.3

This is precisely what our validation gate is built to catch. We don’t trust the literature — we re-derive every claim and try to kill it before capital ever sees it.

1 — Hou, Xue & Zhang, Replicating Anomalies (RFS, 2020); Harvey, Liu & Zhu (RFS, 2016) — ~53% of 296 published factors are likely false discoveries, t>3 needed; McLean & Pontiff (J. Finance, 2016) — 58% post-publication decay. 2 — Bailey, Borwein, López de Prado & Zhu, Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism (Notices of the AMS, 2014). 3 — Olorunnimbe & Viktor (Artificial Intelligence Review, 2023); Kapoor & Narayanan, Leakage and the Reproducibility Crisis in ML-based Science (Patterns, 2023); López de Prado, Advances in Financial ML (2018) — k-fold CV leaks on financial series.

The wedge

No AI agents. No black boxes. No vibes.

The market ships autonomous “AI agents” trading capital nobody should have trusted them with. Isard is the deliberate opposite.

  • Deterministic. Same input, same output — rules-based, version-controlled, frozen before testing.
  • Reproducible & auditable. Every result byte-for-byte; every spec signed; every change re-validated against the whole prior corpus.
  • ML earns its place — never as the trader. It proposes; rules decide. If we can’t explain the trade, we don’t take it.
  • Not high-frequency. We don’t race on microseconds, co-location, or latency. Our edge is research, not speed.

The gate

Before an idea touches money, it has to survive five checks.

01 · Prove it

Does it actually work?

We test the idea hard, across many different market conditions — not just the ones that flatter it.

02 · Attack it

Can we break it?

A separate team tries to tear it apart. If there’s a flaw, their job is to find it first.

03 · Write it down

Is it repeatable?

Every step is documented and locked. Nothing depends on one person remembering how it worked.

04 · Time it

Is now the moment?

Even a good idea has to meet the market at the right time, not just any time.

05 · Check reality

Did it behave?

Once it’s live, we compare every real trade to what we expected. Surprises get caught fast.

— · The IP

What we keep private

The exact methods stay ours. The discipline of running all five is the product.

The method · state of the art

Anyone can make a backtest look good. We test every strategy like a new medicine — only the survivors reach real money.

No peeking

Clean data, real costs

It never sees tomorrow’s prices — only clean data and the true cost of every trade.

Closed-book exam

Graded on the unseen

Judged only on data it never trained on — across many markets, not one lucky stretch.

Skill, not luck

Very unlikely to be luck

The more ideas we try, the higher the bar the winner must clear.

Attack it

We try to break it

Reverse it, scramble it, stress it through thousands of crashes. Only survivors get capital.

If there’s a way a strategy could be fooling us, we have a test that catches it — the discipline most never reach.

The search space

A single idea isn’t one strategy — it’s trillions of variants to test.

Every template has dials: which signals to combine, what parameters, which instruments, which timeframes, which regimes and exit rules. Multiply the choices and one idea explodes into an astronomically large space:

parameter grids× 100+ signals× 40+ instruments× 7 timeframes× regimes & exits= Trillions

No human could ever hand-test this. Brute-force search at scale is the only way to comb it — and then the gate decides the few that survive.

The moat — our origin

Two careers on one timeline — academia and the markets — converging into Isard Labs.

Academic
Professional
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2027
USPBSc Maths · 2004–09
FatecBSc Systems · 2011–14
LiverpoolMSc Big Data · 2017–19
AlbertaRL AI · 2020
LiverpoolMSc AI · 2021–23 · ★ → Isard Labs
LoyolaPhD AI · 2023–27*
Santander2007–09 · BR
Banco Votorantim2009–10 · BR
Banco Itaú2010–11 · BR
HSBC2011–18 · BR→UK
Devoteam2018–24 · FR
OVHcloud2024–25 · FR
Jolibrain2025–now · FR

Academia and the trading floor, in parallel since 2007 — meeting at the award-winning Liverpool AI master’s that became Isard Labs. Hard to hire. Harder to replicate.

Where we are → where we’re going

Today, what the raise unlocks, and where it goes.

Today

Validated, with skin in the game

18+ years of expertise distilled into 5 years of focused research · real capital already deployed · the top-20 crypto assets · the methodology is ours.

With the raise

Scale research & the search

More compute to research and search for strategies at scale — then expand into futures & ETFs and stand up the first client funds.

The vision

An institutional alpha factory

Many validated strategies, many funds — the edge manufactured and licensed across asset classes, at institutional scale.

Search like a lab.·Reject like a fund.·Now, at scale.

The opportunity

Managing US$1B is a rounding error in markets this size.

US$127T
global equity markets1
US$145T
global bond markets2
US$9.6T/day
foreign-exchange turnover3
US$5.2T
global hedge-fund industry4

Against this, a US$1B fund is a fraction of a fraction. The ceiling on this business isn’t market capacity — it’s how much validated edge we can manufacture. Compute lifts that ceiling.

1 — SIFMA 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book, global equity market cap US$126.7T (year-end 2024). 2 — SIFMA 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book, global bond markets US$145.1T (year-end 2024). 3 — BIS Triennial Survey, daily FX turnover US$9.6T (April 2025). 4 — HFR, global hedge-fund industry AUM US$5.2T (1Q 2026).

The field

The quant funds we benchmark against — their scale, and the returns they run on.

Fund (flagship)AUM ≈Net return
AQR · Apex~US$140B+19.6%
D.E. Shaw · Composite~US$85B+18.5%
Point72~US$41B+17.5%
Two Sigma · Spectrum~US$70B+10.9%*
Millennium~US$80B+10.5%
Citadel · Wellington~US$67B+10.2%
Man Group · AHL~US$228B+5%
Renaissance · Medallionn/d~39%**

Tens to hundreds of billions each, on their latest reported full-year net returns — mostly double-digit (≈ +10–20%); trend-following (Man AHL) was softer at ~+5%, and Medallion is the ~39% long-run outlier. A US$1B client fund is a rounding error — and our conservative 10% base sits below the field.

Latest reported full-year net returns: AQR Apex +19.6%, D.E. Shaw Composite ~+18.5%, Point72 +17.5% (FY2025; Bloomberg / Bloomberg Law); Millennium +10.5%, Citadel Wellington +10.2% (FY2025; Hedgeweek, CNBC); Man AHL ~+5% (FY2025; Man Group). *Two Sigma Spectrum +10.9% is FY2024 (FY2025 not disclosed). **Renaissance Medallion ≈39% net annualised 1988–2018, employee-only fund (no current public AUM). AUM figures are firm-wide, approximate, latest 2025–26 disclosures; several funds blend quant with discretionary.

The category

Quant-as-a-Service is already a real, institutional market.

The quant stack is unbundling — cheap compute, commoditised data, margin compression — and a B2B market has formed around licensing research, signals and execution to institutions.

~US$20T
client AUM Premialab states its platform covers1
SGX
Singapore Exchange acquired Scientific Beta — 93% stake, €186M, 2020 (an EDHEC spin-out)2
US$92M
cumulative capital CloudQuant has allocated to external strategies (US$15M first tranche) · ~10% of net profit to the creator3

Goldman Sachs runs a Systematic Trading Strategies desk doing exactly this. The model isn’t novel — shipping the validated whole strategy is.

1 — Premialab (company-stated; premialab.com). 2 — SGX / Scientific Beta press release (Jan 2020): €186M for a 93% stake. 3 — CloudQuant (Business Wire, 2018): US$15M first allocation, US$92M cumulative, ~10% of monthly net profit to creators; figures ~2018-vintage. Goldman Sachs Marquee (Systematic Trading Strategies). Company-stated; pending independent verification.

The business model

One engine, two ways to buy it — and we only win when the client wins.

We charge on results we can both see and that keep us on the client’s side. Where we can’t see the result, we charge for access and effort — never more than the relationship is worth.

Customers are funds — new or existing — that want a validated edge. Margins are high: we license IP and share in the result — we never manage the money or take market risk, costs are largely fixed, and each new client multiplies revenue on the same IP.

How it ships (Quant-as-a-Service): an API signal feed or a packaged container that plugs into the client’s execution stack — the model Goldman Sachs runs through its Systematic Trading Strategies desk. Comparable economics are market-standard: CloudQuant allocates US$15–92M tranches to external strategies and pays ~10% of net profit.

1 · You run it

We license it to you

You run it on your own systems and carry the operating cost. We charge a modest access fee on the capital it runs, plus a share of the profit — we only win when you win. Recurring, and it scales as you do.

2 · We sell it

You buy a strategy outright

One buyer, one strategy — exclusive. Priced between what we’d earn licensing it and what it’s worth to you, with part paid only if it keeps performing.

Built-in fairness: the profit share (you-run) is paid only on net new profit, and only where the law allows; an outright sale is never priced below the recurring licensing stream it forecloses. Delivery & comparable economics: Goldman Sachs Systematic Trading Strategies desk; CloudQuant capital-allocation model (company disclosures).

The ask

US$50M over two years — to build the compute that scales the discipline.

US$50M
raise, deployed over ~24 months
~US$20M/yr
compute — generation (GPU/VRAM) + validation (CPU/RAM)1
~US$5M/yr
team, data, compliance & legal3
~US$1.7M/mo
compute to spend — most to generation, the rest to validation
a few ¢
hardware cost to test one strategy (~1 core · 10 min)2
Millions/yr
strategies generated, tested, and run through the gate

US$25M/yr × 2 years. The bottleneck between a validated 10% strategy and a 20–30% one is search at scale — this raise turns one machine into a fleet.

1,2 — Public cloud rates (2025): a 192-vCPU node (AWS m7i.metal-48xl) ≈ US$9.68/hr ⇒ ~US$0.05/core-hour ⇒ a ~10-min backtest <1¢; H100 GPUs ≈ US$2–4/GPU-hr; ~US$20M/yr ≈ US$1.7M/mo funds a large generation + validation fleet. 3 — Operations ~US$5M/yr: lean senior quant team ~US$3M (quant comp US$0.3–1M+ each), market data & infrastructure ~US$1M, compliance / legal / audit ~US$1M.

Valuation framing

Priced as an applied-AI research lab, not a traditional fund.

Floor

Cost to replicate the IP

Replacement cost. Elite AI researchers command ~US$1–2M+/yr and AI-team acqui-hires reach the hundreds of millions; senior quants run US$1M+/yr. Five years of a fused academic + trading-floor team ⇒ ~US$20–40M and years to rebuild.1

Engine

Two ways to earn

Recurring licensing fees — the client runs the strategy — plus one-time blueprint sales, all on the client’s capital, with no market risk to us. A handful of client licences covers the lab; everything beyond is upside.

Comps

Early AI labs

Priced pre-revenue, on team + thesis: Anthropic raised US$124M (Series A, 2021); OpenAI took US$1B from Microsoft (2019).2

Indicative structure: US$50M for 10–15% of the technology company → US$350–500M post-money.

1 — Elite AI-researcher comp ~US$1–2M+/yr and AI-team acqui-hires into the hundreds of millions (press reports, 2024–25); senior quant-researcher comp US$0.3–1M+ (industry compensation data, 2025). 2 — Anthropic, “Anthropic raises $124 million” (May 2021); OpenAI / TechCrunch, “Microsoft invests $1 billion in OpenAI” (July 2019). · Illustrative & non-binding, pending verification & legal review. Not an offer or solicitation.

Return & exit

How the investor wins — and how the money comes back.

You own equity in a high-margin IP company priced like an applied-AI research lab, not a fund. Value compounds two ways: the IP and recurring revenue grow, and the lab is cash-generative — it can fund itself and distribute.

Exit · 1

Strategic acquisition

Quant funds, banks or AI labs buy the IP and team — in a market where elite researchers command ~US$1–2M+/yr and AI-team acqui-hires reach the hundreds of millions.

Exit · 2

Cash distributions

The licensing revenue is recurring and high-margin — once it covers the lab, the surplus can be paid out to holders.

Exit · 3

Later round / secondary

As client AUM and the IP scale, later-stage or secondary capital provides liquidity at a stepped-up valuation.

Illustrative; no exit is guaranteed. Acqui-hire benchmarks cited on the valuation slide. Pending legal review.

Risks & mitigations

What could go wrong — and how we’ve built against it.

RiskHow we mitigate it
An edge decaysContinuous search refills the pipeline; every live strategy is reconciled bar-by-bar, so a fading one is retired fast.
A “winner” was really luckThe entire validation gate exists to catch this — nothing reaches capital without surviving it.
Key-person dependenceThe methodology is documented, version-controlled IP — not in one person’s head.
RegulationQualified-client gating, a compliance budget in the raise, and a license model that carries the lightest burden.
Crypto-only · compute costThe raise funds compute; expansion into regulated futures & ETFs diversifies. No HFT or leverage arms race.
Illustrative; not exhaustive. Pending verification & legal review.

Compliance by design

Built to fit the rules, not fight them.

Conduct & registration

Credentialed where it counts

Algorithmic-trading work can require registration and credentials in regulated venues — we plan for it, and confirm what applies per jurisdiction with counsel.

Market-access controls

Risk checks before every order

Pre-trade risk checks, hard exposure limits and an automated kill-switch are built into every shipped strategy by design.

Our risk architecture already enforces volatility-scaled sizing, hard drawdown limits and an automated kill-switch — so a client deploying our work starts from sound, auditable controls. The exact regulatory mapping is finalized with specialist counsel per jurisdiction and client type.

General regulatory context, not legal advice. Specific obligations vary by jurisdiction and client type and are confirmed with specialist counsel; nothing here asserts current compliance with any particular rule.

Why systematic

If you can’t prove yourself wrong, you can’t know if you’re right.

Discretionary trading runs on hardwired human biases — and can never answer the only question that matters: was it skill, or was it luck?

confirmation loss aversion overconfidence recency hindsight

Systematic is the only path that can be measured, repeated, and disproved. You can’t trade on intuition forever.

Why now

The compute era rewards disciplined search — and punishes hype.

The Isard — the Pyrenean chamois — is sure-footed where others slip. As capital floods toward unauditable “AI agents,” the durable edge belongs to whoever can search at scale and refuse to fool themselves about what they find.

Search like a lab.·Reject like a fund.·The moment compute makes that decisive is now.

Depth of research

Five years of research — an archive most funds never build.

5+ yrs
of research compounding into the architecture
100+
research approaches explored in parallel
100K+
lines of research code, version-controlled
10K+
experiments — run, recorded, and reviewed
1K+
signal & indicator variants engineered & tested
1K+
method configurations compared head-to-head
Millions
of candidate combinations searched at scale
A few
survive the gate to reach real capital

Most of it was rejected — and that is the point. The archive of what didn’t work is the map of where the edge isn’t.

The name

Isard: sure-footed where others slip.

The animal

Pyrenean chamois

Rupicapra pyrenaica — a high-altitude specialist (to ~3,000 m) that holds its footing on steep, icy ledges where predators can’t follow.

The double meaning

“Slippage”

Execution slippage that erodes alpha — and a strategy slipping in a regime shift. We are built against both.

The pedigree

Walter & Peter Isard

Walter Isard — father of Regional Science and an early developer of the gravity model of trade. Peter Isard — IMF economist on exchange rates & financial crises.

Rupicapra pyrenaica — high-altitude Pyrenean specialist (Animal Diversity Web; Parc National des Pyrénées). Walter Isard, founder of Regional Science; early gravity-model-of-trade work (cf. Tinbergen, 1962). Peter Isard, IMF — exchange-rate economics & financial crises.

The universe

What we point the search at — today crypto, expanding across asset classes.

Today we cover the top-20 crypto assets by market cap. The raise widens the same disciplined search into the world’s most liquid futures and ETFs:

Crypto · today

Top-20 by market cap

BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and the rest of the large-cap set — where the research began.

Equity-index futures

The benchmark indices

ES (S&P 500), NQ (Nasdaq-100), RTY (Russell 2000) — the deepest, most-traded equity markets.

Commodities

Energy & metals

CL (crude oil), GC (gold) — classic trend and macro markets.

Rates

Government bonds

ZN (10-yr Treasury note), ZB (30-yr Treasury bond) — the core of the interest-rate complex.

FX

Major currencies

6E (euro / USD), 6J (Japanese yen / USD) — the most liquid currency futures.

ETFs

One-click exposure

SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq-100), IWM (Russell 2000), TLT (long Treasuries), GLD (gold), USO (oil) + sector ETFs.

1 · You run it — economics

You run it on your own systems — we license the edge and share the upside.

Take a strategy that can run US$500M at about 15% a year. You host and operate it; we license it for a modest access fee on the capital it runs, plus a profit share — so we only win when you win.

US$150k
one-time set-up & integration
0.5%/yr
access fee on the capital it runs (US$2.5M on US$500M)
10%
share of profits — alignment preserved, we win only when you win

≈ US$10M/yr at the US$500M · 15% case — US$2.5M access + US$7.5M profit share, plus set-up. Recurring, and it compounds as the client scales the capital and adds strategies.

Illustrative; access fee scales with deployed size (fixed annual minimum); profit share on contractually-reported P&L, where the law allows. Fee terms indicative, pending contracts & legal review.

2 · We sell it — economics

Sell the strategy outright — priced openly between two numbers.

The same US$500M · 15% strategy, sold exclusively to one buyer for roughly its 3-year edge-life. We price it transparently — never below what we’d earn licensing it ourselves, never above what it’s worth to the buyer.

US$24M
Floor — what we’d earn licensing it ourselves over 3 yrs (today’s money). We never sell below this.
~US$40M + US$40M
Our price — up front, plus an earn-out paid only if it keeps performing.
US$180M
Ceiling — the profit the strategy generates for the buyer over its life (today’s money).
Illustrative. AUM = assets under management (the money a strategy runs). 3-yr figures discounted to today at 12%. Fee terms indicative, pending contracts & legal review.

The x-ray

Where a US$1B fund and a 10% return actually sit in the industry.

Fund size (AUM) — by number of funds · log scale

$10M$100M$1B$10B$100B US$1B ~533 funds >$1B ≈85% of assets top funds

Annual net return — across funds · bell with fat tails

0%+10%+20%+30%+40% break-even ≈ +10% median = our base top funds +15–19% Medallion ~39%

By size, ~533 funds over US$1B hold ~85% of all assets — a US$1B client already sits in the top ~5%. By return, the industry clusters near +10%, exactly our conservative base. The edge is moving right.

Universe ~10,000+ funds, ~US$4T (Statista; With Intelligence). >US$1B “Billion-Dollar Club” ≈533 firms ≈82–86% of assets (With Intelligence, 2024). Returns: HFRI Fund-Weighted +10.0% in 2024, bell-shaped with fat tails, top/bottom-decile dispersion ~55pp (HFR; Aurum, 2024). Distribution shapes illustrative, anchored to these reported statistics.

Important notice

Confidential & not an offer.

This document is confidential and provided for discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor a prospectus or offering document. All figures — including strategy returns, AUM, breakeven, valuation, and projections — are illustrative, unaudited, and subject to verification, change, and legal review. Research-volume metrics describe development effort, not investment performance. Systematic and quantitative strategies carry risk, including loss of capital; past or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. Any offering of securities would be made only to qualified/eligible investors via definitive documentation and in compliance with applicable law. [ COMPLIANCE: final wording pending securities/legal review — do not distribute until approved. ]